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10: What s It Worth in .NET
10: What s It Worth
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Twenty years from now, when the kids are grown and have moved out (you hope!), you may decide to sell the house Why Because you no longer need such a big home Neither the house nor the school system changed what changed were internal factors regarding your use for the property, and thus its value to you External factors are things outside your control that affect property values If your commute time is cut in half because mass-transit rail service is extended into your neighborhood after you buy your home, your home s value may increase If a garbage dump is built next door to you, you ll have a big problem getting top dollar for your house when you sell it The law of supply and demand is another external factor that affects value If more people want to buy than sell, buyer competition drives home prices up Conversely, if more people want to sell than buy, home prices drop See 4 for a complete explanation of all the factors that influence home prices
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Cost is yesterday
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Cost measures past expenditures for example, what the sellers paid when they bought their house What the sellers originally paid or how much they spent fixing up the house after they bought it doesn t mean diddlypoo as far as a house s present or future value is concerned That was then, and this is now For example, when home prices skyrocketed in most parts of both coasts during the latter half of the 1990s and into the mid-2000s, some buyers accused sellers of being greedy You paid $400,000 seven years ago Now you re asking $850,000, they said If you get your price, you ll make an obscenely large profit So what sellers replied compassionately If you don t want to pay our modest asking price, move out of the way so those nice buyers standing behind you can present their offer In a hot seller s market, people who base their offering price on what sellers originally paid for property waste everyone s time However, the market doesn t always go in the same direction forever In the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s, for example, prices declined in many areas Sellers would ve been ecstatic to find buyers willing to pay them what they paid five years earlier, when home prices peaked
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Part III: Property, Players, and Prices
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Uneducated buyers are inadvertent liars
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Ray has only to look into a mirror to see the perfect prototype of a lying, uneducated buyer Like all buyers, Ray honestly believed he was telling his agent the truth when he and his sweet wife, Annie B, began looking for a home in the wine country about 50 miles north of San Francisco When they first met their agent, Beverly Mueller, Ray wasted no time establishing the ground rules of the house hunt We don t need the Taj Mahal, Ray told Beverly I m in the real estate army, not a civilian like your other buyers Trust me when I tell you that $300,000 is the flat-out, absolute upper limit of what we ll spend I understand, Ray We ll only look at places under $300,000, Beverly said And look they did Over the next several months, Beverly showed them every house in their price range on the market in the Sonoma Valley Ray and Annie rejected each and every one Either they liked the land and hated the house, or vice versa They were ready to give up when they got lucky Ray and Annie found Woodpecker Haven, the home they ended up buying in Glen Ellen, thanks to Karen and Herman Isman, friends of theirs who were also working with Beverly Karen and Annie drove from San Francisco to Glen Ellen together to see a house that Beverly thought the Ismans would like It was love at first sight not for Karen, but for Annie Why hadn t Beverly shown Ray and Annie the house Because its asking price was $390,000 far more than the $300,000 ceiling Ray imposed Beverly s mistake was believing what Ray told her when they first met Why did Ray lie He didn t intend to Had he and Annie found what they wanted for less than $300,000, Ray would ve been telling the truth Only after three months of looking at property did it become clear that what Ray and Annie wanted to spend and what they wanted to live in were totally out of whack with market reality Many buyers hit the same wall sooner or later during their education process Ray and Annie belatedly realized that they had to make tradeoffs either reduce their expectations to fit their budget or expand their budget until it satisfied their expectations That was when they became educated buyers They were finally realistic enough to make tough decisions What Ray and Annie experienced happens to most people For example, you ruefully decide that either the swimming pool or the family room has to go because you can t afford a home that has both and still buy in the neighborhood you like Or perhaps you opt to keep your wish list intact and buy in a slightly less wonderful neighborhood Something has to give when you re forced to confront reality The other alternative is expanding your buying power Much as you d like the security of a 30-year fixed-rate loan, you decide to get an adjustable-rate mortgage instead because the ARM allows you to qualify for a bigger loan Much as you d like to buy without financial assistance from your parents, you swallow your pride and ask them for a loan Again, something has to give Groucho Marx once said he d never belong to any club that would have him as a member Paraphrasing Groucho, most folks would rather not settle for the house they can afford if, by stretching themselves a bit, they can buy their dream home
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